01  Summary

Today is the week's most consequential session: May CPI drops at 8:30 AM ET — the final major inflation input before Warsh's June 17-18 FOMC meeting — and Oracle reports Q4 FY2026 earnings after the close. Futures are lower this morning — Nasdaq −0.6%, S&P −0.4%, Dow −0.2% — as markets absorb Trump's overnight retaliatory strikes on Iranian air defenses following Tuesday's harsh session that saw the Nasdaq and S&P plummet after Trump "teased" new strikes. Oil is elevated: Brent near $104, WTI near $99.

The market is in a deeply challenging position heading into CPI. Analysts warn the print could challenge three-year highs due to sticky food and energy costs — oil was above $100 for much of May. Super Micro Computer cratered 10% pre-market after announcing a $7B financing package for its AI infrastructure order backlog, signaling the scale of cash burn in the AI buildout. Oracle's results tonight are expected to show cloud revenue growth potentially accelerating toward 94% in Q4 — a critical test of whether AI cloud demand has become a tangible revenue story or remains a future-promise valuation. Rate hike probability at June FOMC sits at ~68% this morning.